US Relationship with China Faces Strain as Taiwan Elects New President
The United States will face a significant challenge in its relations with Beijing as Taiwanese voters choose a new president this weekend, marking the most crucial test since the leaders of both nations met in November.
The focus is on maintaining calm in the Taiwan Straits, a narrow strip of water spanning 110 miles (177 kilometers) between the Chinese mainland and the self-governed island. The potential for armed conflict also raises concerns of a confrontation between Washington and Beijing, posing a threat to global economic stability.
China fears that a victory in Saturday’s election by the front-runner would be a step toward independence and has suggested to Taiwan’s voters that they could be choosing between peace and war.
Washington is prepared to work with both Taipei and Beijing to avoid miscalculations and an escalation in tensions, regardless of which presidential candidate wins, officials and observers say.
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A senior White House official said the U.S. will keep channels of communication open with China and will stay in close contact with Taiwan to “reinforce both our support for Taiwan’s democratic processes and also our strong commitment to peace, stability and the status quo.” The official spoke to reporters on Thursday on the condition of anonymity to discuss the plans.
President Joe Biden intends to dispatch an informal delegation comprising former high-ranking officials to the island following the election. The United States lacks formal relations with Taiwan, and sending an official delegation would anger Beijing, as it views the island as Chinese territory.
Anticipating a “period of higher tensions” ahead, the official said the U.S. is preparing for different reactions from Beijing, depending on the election results, that may range from no response to military actions.
On Saturday, the 23 million inhabitants of the island will select a new president as Tsai Ing-wen, who has completed two terms, steps down. The election is closely watched due to Beijing's disapproval of the leading candidate, Lai Ching-te, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, recognized for its pro-independence stance. There are also apprehensions that a victory for Lai might prompt a military reaction from the mainland.
Beijing has vowed to unify with Taiwan, by force if necessary. Any military action could draw in the United States, which provides Taiwan with military hardware and technology under a security pact.
Washington, while not taking sides on Taiwan’s sovereignty, opposes any unilateral change to the status quo by either side. It has shown no official preference for any candidate.
Biden, when meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November in California, stressed the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits. Xi pressed Biden to support China’s peaceful reunification with the island and told him “the Taiwan question remains the most important and most sensitive issue in China-U.S. relations.”
No matter who wins Saturday’s election, Washington will engage with the new Taiwanese government to strengthen ties and focus on deterring military aggression from Beijing, lawmakers and observers have said.
“The U.S. will exchange notes with Taiwan to preserve stability and for Taiwan to be resilient going forward,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund.
