Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Prediction: Champions League Final Preview
Real Madrid are the favourites to win the UEFA Champions League final, overcoming Borussia Dortmund in 90 minutes in 55.4% of pre-match simulations.
Dortmund have only won three of their 14 meetings with Madrid in this competition (D5 L6).
Should they avoid defeat here, Los Blancos will have gone unbeaten across a European Cup/Champions League season for the first time in their history.
Real Madrid will be aiming to extend their unparalleled record in the UEFA Champions League when they meet Borussia Dortmund in the final on Saturday.
Carlo Ancelotti’s team have lifted Europe’s top continental trophy on 14 occasions, an astounding seven more than any other side in history. Standing in their way of a record-extending triumph at Wembley Stadium will be Dortmund, who are featuring in just their third final in this competition.
In stark contrast, Dortmund may feel somewhat fortunate to have reached this stage after watching their opponents get denied by the woodwork 12 times in the Champions League this term. That includes six occasions in the two-legged last-four meeting with Paris Saint-Germain and, in total, marks the most a team has ever seen their woodwork hit within a single campaign on record (since 2003-04).
Edin Terzić’s side moved one match away from European glory after a 2-0 aggregate victory over PSG, who fell to a 1-0 defeat in the second leg after Mats Hummels’ header proved the difference at Parc des Princes.
Dortmund’s second-leg hero Hummels has not missed a minute of Champions League action this campaign. He could become the first outfield player to play every minute of a winning season since Madrid’s now-departed star Cristiano Ronaldo in 2017-18, while the last central defender to do so was Sami Hyypiä in 2004-05 with Liverpool.
Individual records aside, Hummels will be praying he and the rest of the defence can keep Vinícius Júnior quiet. The Brazilian has five goals and four assists in the Champions League this season, following on from his seven goals and five assists in 2022-23.
Indeed, across the last three campaigns of UEFA’s coveted competition, Vinícius has been directly involved in more goals than any other player (31 – 16 goals, 15 assists). Worryingly for Dortmund, 17 of those have come in the knockout stages (eight goals, nine assists), which is also the most of any player in this period.
As for team news, Dortmund will be without Sébastien Haller, Ramy Bensebaïni and Julien Duranville. Haller’s absence almost guarantees Niclas Füllkrug will start up top, supported by Jadon Sancho, Karim Adeyemi and Julian Brandt.
At the other end of the spectrum to Kroos, 20-year-old Jude Bellingham will face his former side Dortmund on home soil at England’s national stadium, aiming to capture his first Champions League success.
This will be the 15th meeting between these two sides in Europe, all of which have been in the Champions League. Madrid are the team Dortmund have faced most often in the competition (14), while the Spanish side have only played more against Bayern (22) and Juventus (16).
Despite Madrid winning 3-1 away and 3-2 at home when these two sides last met in the 2017-18 group stage, there is still hope for Dortmund. Neither team has previously managed to win three consecutive games in this fixture in European competition.
Ancelotti’s team are winless in their last two league outings, sharing a goalless draw with Real Betis after being held 4-4 by Villarreal, but that downturn in form could be explained by Madrid placing full focus on this final.
That additional impetus on Europe makes sense as Madrid could go unbeaten across a European Cup/Champions League season for the first time in their history (currently P12 W8 D4), if they avoid defeat on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Dortmund head into this memorable European night after a disappointing league season that finished in typically inconsistent fashion, losing 3-0 at Mainz before beating Darmstadt 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park.
Terzić’s side finished fifth in the Bundesliga this season, making them the second-lowest ranked German side to compete in a European Cup/Champions League final, after Bayern Munich in 1974-75 (10th).
PREDICTION: REAL MADRID TO WIN @1.70
