China Test-Fires ICBM Into International Waters After Decades
China has said it successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean.
The ICMB was launched at 08:44 local time (04:44 GMT) on Wednesday and "fell into expected sea areas", Beijing's defence ministry said, adding that the test launch was "routine" and part of its "annual training".
The type of missile and its flight path remained unclear, but Chinese state media said Beijing had "informed the countries concerned in advance".
Japan later said that it received "no notice" of the test launch.
China's nuclear weapons tests have traditionally been conducted domestically, with previous intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches targeting the Taklamakan Desert in Xinjiang. However, this recent ICBM launch marks the first time since 1980 that China has fired such a missile into international waters. Nuclear weapons specialist Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace remarked on X that this was likely the first such event in decades, describing China's classification of the test as "routine" and "annual" as odd, given that such tests are not typically held regularly.
Japan's government confirmed it received no prior warning about the launch, with spokesperson Yoshimasa Hayashi stating that China had not provided any notice. Despite this, Japan's defense ministry reported no damage to its vessels and assured ongoing monitoring of Chinese military activities.
The last comparable Chinese test occurred in 1980, when an ICBM flew 9,070 kilometers and landed in the Pacific, involving one of China's largest naval operations. Drew Thompson, a visiting research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, noted that the timing of the test seems designed to intimidate, especially given the current tensions between China and Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan.
Defense analyst John Ridge suggested that the launch may have been a signal aimed at the United States. While US-China relations have seen some improvement over the past year, Beijing’s growing assertiveness continues to cause regional friction. This includes increasing incidents with the Philippines in contested waters and recent airspace breaches with Japan, which led Japan to scramble fighter jets in response to a Chinese spy plane.
Tensions surrounding Taiwan remain another flashpoint, with Taiwan’s defense ministry reporting intensive missile drills by China and detecting 23 Chinese aircraft conducting long-range missions around the island. Beijing’s routine military incursions into Taiwanese airspace and waters are part of what analysts describe as "greyzone warfare" designed to normalize such activities.
China suspended nuclear arms control discussions with the US in July in response to continued American arms sales to Taiwan. The Pentagon’s report from last year estimated that China possesses over 500 operational nuclear warheads, including approximately 350 ICBMs. This launch coincides with continued concerns about China’s military capabilities, despite recent leadership changes in the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force due to corruption allegations.
The report also projected that China will reach over 1,000 warheads by 2030. Still, that is a fraction of the more than 5,000 warheads that the US and Russia each say they possess.
