Croatia vs Italy Prediction: Euro 2024 Match Preview

Croatia are staring down the barrel of early elimination, and need to win their final group game against Italy to have any hope of qualifying for the last 16 of Euro 2024.

Zlatko Dalić’s side has laboured to just one point from their opening two games, after they were beaten 3-0 against Group B leaders Spain, before conceding a last-minute equaliser against Albania.

They have played well in spells in both games, but they’ve looked lethargic and leggy for large portions of their matches. That might not be a surprise, considering the age profile of their squad.

Against Albania, Dalic brought in Ivan Perisic, Josip Juranovic and Bruno Petkovic, which took the average age of Croatia’s starting XI up to 30 years and one day, the second-oldest team they had ever fielded at a major tournament.

This will be Croatia and Italy’s third meeting at a major tournament, all taking place in the group stages. Croatia won 2-1 at the 2002 World Cup before a 1-1 draw at Euro 2012.

Since gaining independence in the early 1990s, Croatia has been unbeaten in their eight meetings against Italy (W3 D5). Their last three encounters have all ended 1-1.

This will be Croatia’s fifth European Championship meeting against the current reigning champions, with each game in the group stage. They beat Denmark 3-0 in 1996, drew 2-2 with France in 2004, and lost 1-0 against Spain in 2012, before winning the Spaniards 2-1 in 2016.

PREDICTION: X2 + UNDER 4.5 @1.46

Albania vs Spain Prediction: Euro 2024 Match Preview

Spain’s 1-0 win over Italy on Matchday 2 not only secured their place in the knockout stage at Euro 2024 but also cemented them as winners of Group B. They will be looking to win their opening three games of a European Championship for just a second time, having previously done so in 2008, when they went on to win the tournament.

Manager Luis de la Fuente may decide to ring the changes and rest his stars against Albania, especially given the amount of hard work that was put into their impressive performance against the Azzurri.

Spain won possession in the final third on 10 occasions against Italy on Thursday; the most times they’ve done so in a game at the European Championship since the 2008 quarter-final, which was also against the Italians (13).

Nico Williams was in sensational form against Italy, and it was his cross that was turned into his net by the unfortunate Riccardo Calafiori to win it for La Roja.

Williams created the most chances (4) and completed the joint-most dribbles (4) of any Spain player against Italy. Indeed, the last Spaniard to create as many chances and complete as many dribbles in the same game at the European Championship was Andrés Iniesta against Croatia in 2012 (also 4 for both metrics).

Given Spain are already through as group winners, Pedri could be among those rested in Düsseldorf. If the talented youngster does feature for Spain in this match, though, he will establish a new record by a European player for major tournament appearances (World Cup/Euros) while aged 21 or under, overtaking Cristiano Ronaldo (currently level on 12 games each).

One player who will be absent for Spain is Rodri, who is suspended after collecting yellow cards against both Croatia and Italy.

Albania still has a chance of qualifying, having rescued a late point last time out against Croatia. They had to score a 95th-minute equaliser despite having earlier taken the lead. Albania have scored the opening goal in each of their two matches at Euro 2024, although they are yet to win (D1 L1). No nation has ever scored first in three European Championship games in a row and failed to win any of them.

Gjasula became the first player in the history of the European Championship and World Cup combined to come off the bench and score a goal and an own goal. In 17 minutes at Euro 2024, Gjasula has had as many shots on target as he did in 1,366 minutes in the German Bundesliga this season for SV Darmstadt 98 (1).

Sylvinho’s men have conceded two goals in both of their Group B games, having only shipped two or more goals in one of their previous 14 outings in all competitions. They haven’t conceded 2+ goals in three games in a row since a run of five between October 2016 and June 2017.

Kristjan Asllani is likely to be a key figure if Albania are to threaten Spain’s 100% record. Across their two matches, he leads all Albanian players for shots attempted (4), shots on target (2), successful passes (91) and passes in the final third (20), while he’s also created the joint-most chances (3).

Spain has a flawless record against Albania, winning all eight of their previous encounters, scoring 31 goals and conceding just three. It is Spain’s best 100% record against any opponent, alongside Liechtenstein and Malta, whom they’ve also faced and beaten on eight occasions.

Albania lost 9-0 to Spain in a Euro qualifier in December 1990, which remains their largest-ever competitive defeat. They have also conceded at least twice to them in every previous meeting.

Their last encounter was a friendly in March 2022, which Spain won 2-1 at home thanks to Ferran Torres and a last-minute winner from Dani Olmo after Myrto Uzuni had equalised for the visitors.

PREDICTION: AWAY WIN @1.50