Euro 2024 Groups Preview and Prediction
Euro 2024 is finally here, with the tournament the first to be held in Germany since 1988. The 17th edition of the European Championship will see 24 teams battle it out across 51 matches to determine the winner of the Henri Delaunay Trophy in Berlin’s Olympiastadion on 14 July.
The group stage will comprise six groups, each featuring four teams. Sixteen of those sides will make it through to the knockout stage, with first and second-place sides in each group qualifying for the last 16, as well as the four best teams to finish third.
There are 10 German cities hosting matches at Euro 2024, with Berlin, Munich, Dortmund, Stuttgart, Gelsenkirchen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Cologne and Leipzig all welcoming national teams across June and July.
After England lost the Euro 2020 final at Wembley Stadium on penalties against Italy, Gareth Southgate’s side have been made Euro 2024 favourites by the Opta supercomputer before a ball is kicked, while the Italians will hope to retain their title this summer.
Cristiano Ronaldo will look to add to his already record-breaking goal tally at the European Championship, while new Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappé will be looking to help France win their first Euros title since 2000.
Ahead of kick-off on 14 June in Munich when hosts Germany face Scotland, we look at our expert's Euro 2024 predictions for progression from each of the groups into the last 16, as well as each team’s chances of advancing to the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final.
Euro 2024: Group A Preview and Predictions
The 17th instalment of the European Championship gets underway on 14 June as tournament hosts Germany take on Scotland in Munich. Those two sides are joined in Group A by Hungary and Switzerland, and the four make up what is one of the most evenly-matched groups in the entire tournament.
So, who will qualify for the last 16? Which teams have the best chance of progressing the furthest in the tournament?
Tournament hosts Germany get the Euro 2024 party started Friday, as they look to become the first solo tournament hosts to win the competition since France in 1984.
Group A is arguably the tightest of them all. And that’s illuminated by the progression probabilities of the other three teams in the group.
Switzerland (61.0%) are the second favourite to qualify for the last 16, only just. Murat Yakin’s side are taking part in their sixth European Championship, their third in a row, and will be looking to replicate a successful Euro 2020 campaign that saw them knock out France on penalties in an epic last-16 clash.
Their track record is strong, too. Together with France, the Swiss are the only European team to have reached the knockout stages in each of the last five major international tournaments. They are a 61.0% shot to extend that record, while they have a 25.6% chance of reaching the quarter-finals once more.
From there, it’s a very slight drop down to Hungary (59.3%). Before Tuesday’s late friendly defeat to the Republic of Ireland, they were unbeaten in 13 games, so Marco Rossi’s side came into the tournament in decent form. That unbeaten run included all eight fixtures of their Euro 2024 qualifying group (W5 D3).
That success in qualification marked the first time they’d ever gone through an entire European Championship qualifying group without losing, and the first ahead of a major tournament since the 1974 World Cup.
Hungary failed to win a single game at Euro 2020, but Liverpool midfielder and captain Dominik Szoboszlai missed that tournament through injury. With a squad full of talent across Europe’s top five leagues, could Hungary be this year’s dark horse?
Scotland round out the group and have a healthy 58.9% chance of qualifying for the last 16. That would be a first for the Scots, who are making their fourth appearance at the European Championship but are yet to reach the knockout stages of the competition.
Steve Clarke’s side greatly impressed in qualifying, finishing second in a difficult group that contained both Spain and Norway. They tallied five wins in that campaign, their most in an eight-game qualifying group for a major tournament, and it included a famous 2-0 victory over Spain at Hampden Park.
Scott McTominay scored both of those goals that day and the Manchester United midfielder netted seven in total during the qualifying process, the joint most by a Scottish player in a Euros/World Cup qualifying campaign.
Finishing second in the group – and the model suggests they’ve got a 24.6% chance of doing so – will set up a last-16 clash against the runners-up of Group B. Win that, and Scotland could face the Auld Enemy, England, in the quarter-finals.
If that happened, it’s safe to say the majority of the United Kingdom would lose its mind.
Euro 2024: Group B Preview and Predictions
The draw for Euro 2024 threw up some very interesting groups, and arguably none more so than Group B, with three teams each with a reasonable chance of going all the way in Germany. Former European champions Spain and Italy are joined by a Croatia side that finished third at the 2022 World Cup, as well as Albania.
So, who will qualify for the last 16? Which teams have the best chance of progressing the furthest in the tournament?
Spain will need to find their way into their opponents’ penalty box with regularity, though. Their last 50 goals at the Euros have all been scored from inside the box. Their last goal from outside the penalty area was Raul’s strike against Slovenia in the group stage of Euro 2000.
De la Fuente will be the first Spain manager since Javier Clemente (World Cup 1998) to take charge of La Roja at a major tournament having never been capped by the national team as a player.
Should Italy succeed again in Germany, they will become only the second country to successfully defend the trophy after Spain did so in 2012.
This will be Luciano Spalletti’s first major international tournament as head coach of the Azzurri. The former Napoli boss follows in the footsteps of 10 other Italian coaches who have taken charge of Italy at the Euros, with no non-Italian manager ever doing so.
As the cliché suggests, don’t expect their games to be high-scoring affairs. Italy’s 45 matches at the European Championships have produced an average of just 1.84 goals (52 for, 31 against), the lowest ratio of any of the 25 teams to have taken part in 10+ matches in the competition.
Italy only wins the Euros again in 5.0% of simulations, making them an outside shout as eighth favourites, just one place ahead of their Group B opponents.
Croatia will be a strong proposition, though their performances at the European Championships have not yet matched their World Cup outings. They have reached the semi-finals in 50% of their World Cup appearances (3 out of 6), but are yet to reach the final four at the Euros (no semi-finals in 6 appearances).
Zlatko Dalić will become the first manager to lead Croatia into four consecutive major tournaments. Since his appointment in 2017, Croatia has reached the final four of the World Cup twice (2nd place in 2018, 3rd place in 2022) and the round of 16 at Euro 2020.
Croatia have a 67.8% chance of advancing from Group B but are given only a 2.0% chance of winning the whole tournament.
Veteran Luka Modrić will, of course, be crucial to their prospects. Excluding play-offs, the Real Madrid star was involved in the fourth-most open-play shot-ending sequences of any player during Euro 2024 qualifying (66), behind Bruno Fernandes (81), Kylian Mbappé (75) and Granit Xhaka (74).
Albania are the undoubted underdog of the group, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be an easy opponent for any of the other three teams.
Sylvinho leads Albania into only their second major international tournament after Gianni De Biasi took them to Euro 2016. The former Arsenal and Barcelona left-back will become the first Brazilian head coach at a European Championship since Luiz Felipe Scolari led Portugal in 2008.
Albania finished top of their Euro 2024 qualifying group ahead of Czech Republic and Poland. Jasir Asani was a big help in that, being involved in more goals in qualifying than any other Albania player (3 goals, 2 assists). Indeed, his three goals were scored from just four shots on target. They also have the talents of Rey Manaj to call upon in attack – the striker scored 18 goals in the Turkish Süper Lig for Sivasspor in 2023-24.
They are given just a 33.4% chance of getting through to the last 16, but if they can make a good start in their opener against Italy on 15 June, don’t count them out.
Euro 2024: Group C Preview and Predictions
It’s the start of another major international tournament, which can only mean one thing. It’s time to look at England – who have won just one major men’s trophy in their history – and predict football to finally ‘come home’.
Gareth Southgate’s men do indeed come into Euro 2024 as favourites, partly due to impressive recent performances in tournaments and also the sheer volume of attacking talent the Three Lions have at their disposal.
They must overcome a group containing Euro 2020 semi-finalists Denmark, perennial ‘dark horses’ Serbia and a Slovenia team who produced their best-ever qualifying performance to get to Germany.
Denmark will be one of the many teams looking to stop them, while also wanting to avenge their 2-1 loss to England in the semis of Euro 2020.
Since winning the Euros in 1992, Denmark has reached the knockout stage of the tournament on only two occasions: the quarter-finals in 2004 and the semi-finals in 2020. They are given a healthy 69.2% chance of doing so for a third time, though, and kick things off in Stuttgart against Slovenia on 16 June.
Kasper Hjulmand’s men topped their qualifying group with 22 points, winning all five home games.
There should be excitement as Denmark’s 33 matches at the European Championships have produced on average 2.79 goals (42 for, 50 against), the highest ratio of the 12 teams to have played more than 20 matches in the competition.
For Serbia, this will be their first participation at a European Championship as an independent nation, having competed as Yugoslavia and FR Yugoslavia in five previous editions.
Serbia had no trouble finding the net in qualifying, being the only nation in Group G to score in all eight games (15 goals in total). Across qualifying for both the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024, Serbia have scored in their last 22 matches (excluding play-offs) since losing 5-0 to Ukraine in June 2019.
Serbia has been handed a 56.2% chance of making it to the knockout stage.
Slovenia are the outsiders of Group C, but that’s not to say they will be a pushover for anybody.
They have never won a European Championship match, with their only previous participation coming at Euro 2000 when they drew two and lost one in the group stage, including a 3-3 draw with FR Yugoslavia.
Slovenia impressed in qualifying, winning seven games and 22 points, both records for them in a major tournament qualifying campaign. They finished second in Group H behind Denmark on goal difference.
Twenty-year-old striker Benjamin Sesko will be their likely dangerman, scoring five goals and assisting two more in nine qualifying appearances, the most goals and assists combined of any Slovenian player. The RB Leipzig talent recently became the youngest player to score in seven consecutive Bundesliga matches in the competition’s history, beating the previous record of Rudi Völler.
Euro 2024: Group D Preview and Predictions
In terms of their Group D chances, progression looks to be serene. France has a 92.9% chance of qualifying for the last 16, and a 57.9% of doing so in first place.
The French have dominant head-to-head records against all of their Group D opponents, including the Netherlands, whom they beat twice comprehensively in their qualification campaign.
Kylian Mbappé was electric in qualifying, scoring nine goals and providing five assists, and only Romelu Lukaku (15) had a hand in more goals. Mbappé is still seeking his first European Championship goal, but if he gets on a roll, France will take some beating.
The Netherlands will be hoping to do just that. Given a 76.2% chance of qualifying for the last 16, they are the clear second favourites in Group D.
A European Championship in Germany will bring back many fond memories for Dutch supporters, too. The Oranje won the tournament the last time it was held exclusively in Germany in 1988, beating the USSR in the final (2-0). The current manager, Ronald Koeman, was in the Netherlands side that day and he is one of just two managers at Euro 2024 to have won the tournament as a player (along with Deschamps).
Koeman’s side has a 5.1% of winning their second European Championship title but perhaps a more realistic expectation would be a quarter-final exit. That was the outcome in 45.8% of our tournament simulations.
Austria and Poland are then predicted to battle it out for third in the group. Less than 2% separates the two teams between finishing third in our projections – Austria 32.5%, Poland 30.9% – and both sides have a healthy chance of qualifying for the last 16; particularly given there are four ‘best third-placed teams’ spots up for grabs.
Ralf Rangnick is in the dugout for them now and, despite rumoured interest from Bayern Munich this summer, has recently reaffirmed his commitment to the Austria national team.
In true Red Bull style, Rangnick has got his team to press aggressively and energetically from the front. Austria had the lowest PPDA (opposition passes allowed per defensive action) of any side during the Euro 2024 qualifying, allowing 8.3 opposition passes for every defensive action, while only Spain (13.0) averaged more high turnovers per game than their 11.9.
Poland qualified for Euro 2024 after overcoming Wales on penalties in the play-offs, despite not registering a single shot on target in 120 minutes.
The Poles are very good at qualifying for the European Championship – they are one of only eight nations to have qualified for each of the last five tournaments – but they are less good once they get there, winning just two of 14 Euro games (D7 L5) in their history. Their 14% win ratio is the second lowest of any nation to play 10+ games, ahead only of Romania (6%, 1 win in 16).
This could well be the last major tournament for Poland’s leading all-time goalscorer, Robert Lewandowski. The Barcelona man is both Poland’s leading appearance maker (11) and scorer (5) at the European Championship.
At 41.8%, Poland’s most likely finishing position in the group is fourth, but the Matchday 2 encounter with Austria will probably decide who qualifies for the last 16 between the pair of them.
Euro 2024: Group E Preview and Predictions
Belgium breezed through qualification, topping their group with 20 points, winning six and drawing two of their eight games. That campaign saw them extend their unbeaten run in qualifiers (both World Cup and Euros) to 40 matches (W35 D5), dating back to a 1-0 defeat by Wales in 2015.
Ukraine qualified for Euro 2024 via the play-offs after narrowly missing out on automatic qualification in a tough group containing England and Italy. They came from behind to win both of their play-off matches 2-1. Including those fixtures, Ukraine fell behind in six of their 10 matches in qualifying but recovered to win four, the most of any nation throughout the process.
Romania’s class of 2000 were the last team to make it through a group stage, and this generation of players has a 57.4% chance of emulating them, albeit being helped by third place potentially being enough to qualify.
Romania didn’t lose a single game during qualifying and much of their success was built on the back of a fierce defence that conceded just five times in 10 games. At 0.50 goals against per game, only Portugal (0.20) and France (0.38) boasted better defensive numbers. At the heart of that defence are the two centre-backs Radu Drăgușin, now of Tottenham, and Andrei Burcă, who started all 10 matches in qualifying.
Across their 16 games at the European Championship, Romania have managed just a single win (D5 L10), beating England 3-2 at Euro 2000. Their opening game is against Ukraine and will offer them a huge opportunity to not only put that record to bed but make huge strides towards qualification.
Slovakia (51.1%) have the tricky prospect of playing Belgium first up. Defeat in that game would put them on the back foot, and Francesco Calzona’s side is the most likely in Group E to finish bottom (38.2%).
They did win seven games in Euro 2024 qualifying – their joint-most ever in a qualifying group for a major tournament – but weren’t particularly tested outside of two defeats to Portugal. Fellow group members Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg were all comfortably outside the top 70 men’s ranked countries in the world. Their opposition in Group E is a big step up from that.
Euro 2024: Group F Preview and Predictions
Portugal’s campaign gets underway against the Czech Republic on 18 June in Leipzig, with the Seleção heavy favourites to win Group F, doing so in 59.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, while they maintain their perfect record in reaching the Euros knockout stage 93.6% of the time.
Turkey enters their sixth European Championship, having qualified for the tournament in three consecutive editions for the first time.
Vincenzo Montella will be the first non-Turkish head coach to take charge of the national team at a major tournament since fellow Italian Sandro Puppo led Turkey at the 1954 World Cup. The former Milan, Fiorentina and Sevilla boss will be hoping to take them far in Germany, with their previous best performance being their semi-final appearance in 2008.
It hasn’t been a happy competition for Turkey in recent editions, though. They have lost six of their last seven European Championship matches (W1). They have also kept only one clean sheet in their last 12 games at the tournament, which was a 2-0 group-stage win against the Czech Republic at Euro 2016.
They begin their tournament in Dortmund against Georgia on 18 June and have been given a respectable 74.2% chance of advancing from Group F by the supercomputer.
The Czech Republic are no stranger to the Euros, with this their 11th appearance at the tournament (also as Czechoslovakia), and their eighth in a row.
Since they reached the final in 1996, the Czech Republic (or ‘Czechia’) have alternated between reaching the knockout phase and elimination in the group stage of the Euros. They will want to break that streak in Germany, having reached the quarter-finals at Euro 2020.
Patrik Schick was in fine form at that tournament, scoring five of his country’s six goals and becoming only the second Czech player to be sole or joint-top scorer at a single edition of the Euros after Milan Baros in 2004 (also 5 goals).
Ivan Hašek’s side has a 60.7% chance of making it to the knockout phase but will have to come up against an unknown commodity in Group F.
Georgia will compete as an independent country at a major international tournament for the first time in their history. They are the only country at Euro 2024 to make their debut in the tournament, after beating Greece on penalties in the play-offs.
