Euro 2024 Knockout Stage Preview and Prediction
Switzerland vs Italy Prediction: Euro 2024 Last 16 Match Preview
Whittling 24 teams down to 16 has a few interesting consequences, one of them being that some second-placed teams play one another in the first knockout round.
Switzerland and Italy were fortunate enough to avoid first-placed teams having been drawn in Groups A and B. After both finished second, they will face off in the first round-of-16 game in Berlin on Saturday.
It might have been very different for both teams but for a couple of very late goals. The Swiss nearly came top of their group, denied only by a 92nd-minute equaliser for Germany in their final group game, while Italy were seconds away from finishing third and possibly crashing out, only for Mattia Zaccagni to score with 98 minutes on the clock to earn a draw against Croatia on the final matchday.
Italy have far more European Championship pedigree than their opponents here, but Switzerland were certainly the more impressive of the two sides in the group stage. The reigning champions conceded the earliest goal in European Championship history against lowly Albania in their first game, were outplayed from start to finish in defeat to Spain, and then required a last-gasp goal to level against Croatia.
Switzerland, meanwhile, were disappointing in their draw with Scotland but gave a good account of themselves in the draw with Germany, a performance that will give them confidence heading into the knockout stages.
They are no strangers to the latter stages of tournaments. Switzerland have reached the knockout rounds at each of the last six major international tournaments (Euros/World Cup) since the start of the 2014 World Cup. The only European nation currently enjoying a longer such run is France (seven in a row).
However, they haven’t had much luck once they have got there. Excluding shootouts, they have failed to win any of their seven round-of-16 matches at major international tournaments (D3 L4), progressing to the quarter-finals on just one occasion (eliminating France on penalties at Euro 2020).
They are hard to beat, though, having lost just one of their last 13 matches at the European Championship. Any guesses for who that was against? Yep, it was a 3-0 loss to Italy in the group stage at Euro 2020.
Italy are equally difficult to beat, and their games often go the distance. Of their last 26 knockout matches at major international tournaments, 15 have gone to extra-time, including four of their last five.
Overall, the Italians have seen more games go to extra-time than any other nation across the World Cup and Euros (21), and have contested the joint-most penalty shootouts, along with Spain (both 11).
They will hope they don’t have to rely on goalkeeper and captain Gianluigi Donnarumma quite as much in this game as they have done so far. He made 11 saves in the group stage, the most by an Italian goalkeeper in the group stage of a major tournament since Gianluigi Buffon at Euro 2012 (also 11).
This head-to-head is pretty one-sided…
Since winning 1-0 in a May 1993 World Cup qualifier, Switzerland are winless in 11 matches against Italy in all competitions (D6 L5). They are only on longer current winless runs against England (13 games) and Russia (12, including games as USSR), while Italy are only on longer current unbeaten runs against Finland (14) and Turkey (13).
This will be the teams’ fifth meeting at a major international tournament; the Swiss won both games at the 1954 World Cup (2-1 in the group and 4-1 in the group play-off) but Italy have won the last two, both in the group stages and both times 3-0 wins – in the 1962 World Cup and at Euro 2020.
PREDICTION: UNDER 2.5 @1.46
England vs Slovakia Euro 2024 Last 16 Match Preview
England head into the knockout stage having won Group C but with thoroughly underwhelming performances in their three matches at Euro 2024 so far. They come up against Slovakia in the last 16 on Sunday in Gelsenkirchen, in what many deem the ‘weaker’ half of the knockout bracket.
Gareth Southgate’s side held on to win 1-0 against Serbia in their opening match of the tournament, before uninspiring draws against Denmark (1-1) and Slovenia (0-0) to finish the group campaign.
Captain Harry Kane scored once in those three games but has been criticised for his performances, much like in the last European Championship group stage before coming good in the knockouts. England’s record scorer has netted six goals in his last six appearances in the knockout stages of major tournaments for the Three Lions (two in two at the 2022 World Cup, four in four at Euro 2020). His seven goals overall in the knockouts are also the most of any England player.
Despite falling below expectations in attack, England has been hard to break down. They have allowed opponents shots worth just 1.15 expected goals in their three matches, which was lower than every other team in the tournament in the group stage.
Phil Foden’s role in the starting XI came under question, with the Man City forward often drifting in from the left side and struggling to make an impact. He was arguably England’s best player in their final group game versus Slovenia, however, involved in five of England's 12 shots (three shots, two chances created). He travelled back to England after Tuesday’s match to be present at the birth of his child but has returned to Germany and is expected to continue his role in the team on Sunday.
After experimenting with Trent Alexander-Arnold alongside Declan Rice, Southgate still hasn’t decided on his preferred midfield setup at the tournament, after swapping him for Conor Gallagher against Slovenia. Gallagher only lasted 45 minutes before Kobbie Mainoo was brought on to replace him, and it’s the talented Manchester United youngster who is expected to start in this tie.
Slovakia kicked off their Euro 2024 campaign with a sensational victory, shocking Belgium 1-0 in Group E. Despite another goal from Ivan Schranz, who scored the winner against the Red Devils, Slovakia went down 2-1 to Ukraine in their second match before a 1-1 draw with Romania in their final game. That ensured Francesco Calzona’s side made it to the knockouts as one of the four best third-placed teams in the group stage.
Slovakia have no fresh injury worries for this game, while none of their players are suspended. Across their three group games, Calzona made just one change to his starting XI overall, so widespread changes to their side or compact 4-3-3 formation aren’t expected for this tie.
England have won five of their six games against Slovakia. However, their one failure to defeat them was at Euro 2016 in their only previous major tournament meeting, a goalless draw in Saint-Étienne, in which the Three Lions had their most shots (29) in a European Championship match on record (since 1980).
The most recent meeting between these two nations came in September 2017, when goals from Eric Dier and Marcus Rashford sealed a 2-1 victory at Wembley in a World Cup qualifier. Earlier in that qualification campaign, a last-minute Adam Lallana goal won England all three points in Trnava in what was Sam Allardyce’s only game in charge of the Three Lions.
PREDICTION: UNDER 3.5 GOALS @1.25
Germany vs Denmark: OVER 1.5 @1.34
Spain vs Georgia: HOME WIN @1.21
