Euro 2024 Semi-Final Match Preview and Prediction
Spain vs France
Spain and France are both one game away from the Euro 2024 final ahead of Tuesday’s last-four clash, as the pair head to Munich in contrasting form but with the same target in mind.
Luis de la Fuente’s side are the only team to have triumphed in all five matches of this tournament in Germany, edging past Julian Nagelsmann’s hosts in the quarter-finals with a 2-1 extra-time victory.
Dani Olmo opened the scoring early in the second half before a late Florian Wirtz equaliser forced extra time, only for Mikel Merino to prove the unlikely hero with his 119th-minute headed winner.
That Merino magic snatched a fifth straight win for La Roja, though no team in European Championship history has won six matches in a single tournament and no side has ever triumphed in six Euro games in a row.
France boss Didier Deschamps will be well aware that De la Fuente’s men are the form side, having won 15 of their 19 matches since the start of 2023. In that period, Spain’s 79% win rate is the best of any European nation.
Inspired by the likes of wing wizards Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, Spain has also won their last seven games in a row, last winning more consecutively between June 2009 and June 2010 (12).
Yamal has created 14 chances for his Spain teammates at this competition, the most by a Spaniard at a major tournament since Xavi at Euro 2012 (25). That tally of opportunities provided for his teammates is also the most by a teenager at a major tournament since Opta records began (1966 for the World Cup, 1980 for Euros).
The Barcelona winger has managed three assists from those chances, including Friday’s inch-perfect pass for Olmo, with no Spanish player ever registering more at a single European Championship tournament.
Yet this is not a traditional Spanish side, with possessional dominance sacrificed for clinical efficiency up top and defensive tenacity at the back.
Spain has registered lower possession totals than their opponents in two of their five Euro 2024 matches (48% vs Germany, 47% vs Croatia). That is more times than they’d done so across 44 games at major tournaments between the 2006 and 2022 World Cups (once in the Euro 2008 final vs Germany, 46%).
Regardless of the method, Spain will be aiming to reach a fifth European Championship final, with only Germany (6) managing more. The Spaniards have progressed from four of five semi-finals but lost on penalties to eventual winners Italy at this stage at Euro 2020.
France will be looking to reach their fourth Euros final, having done so in 1984, 2000 and 2016, but only the second not played on French soil (Euro 2000 in the Netherlands).
In stark contrast to the Spanish, however, Les Bleus have failed to impress so far at this edition. Deschamps’ men scraped past Portugal on penalties after a drab goalless draw on Friday, with France again failing to find the net.
There have only been four goals scored in France’s five Euro 2024 matches (three for, one against), with those either penalties (2) or own goals (2).
All 128 non-penalty shots have failed to be scored (86 for France, 42 for opponents), while France is the only team on record since 1980 to have more than 50 non-penalty shots at a Euros and fail to find the net with any of them.
Those attacking struggles can somewhat be apportioned to the form of Kylian Mbappé, who has scored just one goal from 20 shots in this tournament with a penalty on MD 3 against Poland.
Indeed, the Real Madrid-bound forward has scored just once from 34 attempts at the European Championship overall (3%), whereas he has managed 12 goals from 39 shots (a 31% shot conversion rate) at the World Cup.
Deschamps’ defensive success, however, can be credited to Mike Maignan. The French stopper has a 94% save percentage in this competition, the best of any goalkeeper to feature more than once.
Maignan’s impressive efforts are the best by a goalkeeper at a Euros tournament since Iker Casillas in 2012 with that year’s winners Spain (also 94%), and expect the Frenchman to be tested again on Tuesday.
Spain vs France Head-to-Head
These two teams are no strangers to one another at major tournaments, with Tuesday set to be the sixth meeting between the pair.
France won three of the first four, triumphing 2-0 in the Euro 1984 final on home soil, 2-1 in the 2000 quarter-final of the same competition and 3-1 in the 2006 World Cup round of 16.
Spain was victorious in the most recent clash, a 2-0 quarter-final victory en route to Euro 2012 glory, while the other meeting ended as a 1-1 draw in the 1996 group stage of UEFA’s top international tournament.
Having already met in every other possible round of action at major tournaments, this semi-final will make Spain vs France just the third fixture to be played at each stage of the World Cup and Euros, along with Italy vs Spain and England vs Germany.
PREDICTION: 1X @1.34
Netherlands vs England
England’s quest to win Euro 2024 heads to Dortmund on Wednesday night for a semi-final showdown with the Netherlands.
Gareth Southgate’s exploits in Germany have been, in a word, gritty.
After edging nervously through the group stage with two draws and a narrow win, the Three Lions required a 95th-minute Jude Bellingham overhead kick to avoid going out against Slovakia before beating Switzerland on penalties in the quarter-finals.
There have been signs of progress and the level of talent on the pitch is obvious but England fans will not fancy another 90 or 120 minutes of tightrope walking with a place in the final on the line.
It has hardly been plain sailing for the Dutch, either.
Having finished third in their group after losing to Austria, they strolled past Romania in the last-16 but needed to come from behind to get the better of a spirited Turkey team on Saturday night.
Ronald Koeman’s team were not fancied to go all the way before the tournament yet are now in their first Euros semi-final for 20 years, as both they and England benefit from being on the ‘kinder’ side of the draw. The question is, who will take the final step to Berlin?
Koeman has kept faith in the same starting line-up for both of the Netherlands’ knockout games so far, but there are questions over it.
Steven Bergwijn has been anonymous on the right wing and his place is under threat from both Jeremie Frimpong, who typically plays right-back for Bayer Leverkusen, and Donyell Malen, scorer of two goals in the last-16.
Wout Weghorst is a candidate to start option up front having been their go-to super-sub for the tournament so far.
The Dutch have set up in a fairly fluid 4-2-3-1 system with Xavi Simons in behind Memphis Depay and Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo has been a major threat on the left flank.
Nathan Ake should continue at left-back ahead of Tottenham’s Micky van de Ven while Joey Veerman will hope to dislodge Tijjani Reijnders or Jerdy Schouten from their low-key midfield line-up.
As for England, questions continue to be asked of Southgate’s plan both when level and when ahead in games.
The much-touted move to a three-man defence before facing Switzerland turned out to hardly be a serious shift from what had gone before. Still, Luke Shaw’s return from injury off the bench suggests he could finally start, providing proper balance on the left side.
Harry Kane is expected to shrug off the cramp which led to his early exit although calls for the captain to be dropped will persist following some quiet displays.
The Three Lions will have Marc Guehi available after his one-game ban and he should start even if Ezri Konsa performed excellently in his absence.
Neither side has any players suspended for the game and yellow cards have now been wiped to ensure no player can miss the final due to two bookings throughout the tournament.
Netherlands vs England Head-to-Head
England have only beaten the Oranje once in nine meetings since a 4-1 win at Euro 96. That’s their only win in major tournaments, alongside a goalless draw at Italia 90 and the Netherlands winning 3-1 at the 1988 Euros.
Netherlands wins: 7, England wins: 6 Draws: 9
PREDICTION: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @1.50
