Germany vs Scotland Prediction: Euro 2024 Match Preview
Euro 2024 kicks off on Friday as Germany takes on Scotland in Munich, and a flying start is on the agenda for Julian Nagelsmann’s team.
Scotland, making their fourth appearance at the European Championship, would probably have been hoping for an easier start than going up against the hosts in the tournament’s opening match.
Steve Clarke’s team qualified in second place behind Spain, pipping Erling Haaland’s Norway to secure a Euro 2024 ticket.
Germany, meanwhile, has picked up form under Nagelsmann since he was appointed as Hansi Flick’s successor, and the former Bayern Munich coach has plenty of talent at his disposal, even if the Euro 2024 hosts are not considered to be among the biggest favourites.
Mats Hummels, Serge Gnabry and Leon Goretzka are three big-name absentees from Germany’s squad, while Bayern youngster Aleksandar Pavlovic had to withdraw on Wednesday due to injury.
This is Nagelsmann’s first major tournament as head coach. Jupp Derwall was the last German boss to win a major tournament with them at the first attempt (Euro 1980).
Germany have gone unbeaten in their last four matches. That being said, they were not particularly impressive in their warm-up matches.
The scoreline is the statistic that matters at tournaments, with Havertz grabbing an equaliser midway through the second half before Pascal Groß secured a late victory.
This is the fourth time that Germany has been the sole host of a major international tournament, reaching the final four in each of the previous three editions: champions at the 1974 World Cup, semi-finalists at Euro 1988 and third place at the 2006 World Cup.
Overall, Germany are taking part in their 14th Euros, more than any other team. They have won the European Championship trophy three times, the joint-most alongside Spain.
Nagelsmann has been happy to lean on youth for his squad selection, and in Wirtz and Musiala, he has two of the most exciting youngsters in world football at his disposal.
Wirtz scored 11 goals and added 11 assists during Bayer Leverkusen’s unbeaten Bundesliga title-winning campaign to claim Player of the Season honours in Germany’s top tier.
Musiala, meanwhile, scored 10 goals from an xG of 7.9 in the league.
Behind them, the returning Kroos brings plenty of experience alongside Ilkay Gündogan, who created the second-most chances of any player in Europe’s top five leagues across all competitions in 2023-24, with 132.
Havertz is likely to lead the line with support from Füllkrug, but Thomas Müller is another weapon in Germany’s arsenal. He has scored 10 goals in 19 appearances at the World Cup (36 shots), but he has never scored in 15 games at the European Championship (31 shots).
Scotland won their first five Euro 2024 qualifiers but then failed to win any of their final three (D2 L1), conceding seven goals in those games after only shipping one in their opening five.
Germany have won only one of their last five matches played in Munich (D3 L1), a 4-2 victory against Portugal at Euro 2020. So, while the hosts will be overwhelming favourites for many, Scotland needn’t go into this devoid of belief, with captain Andrew Robertson and midfield duo John McGinn and Scott McTominay offering a threat, too.
McTominay was the top scorer in qualifying Group A with seven goals – one more than Manchester City superstar Haaland managed for Norway.
McTominay’s goal tally is the joint most by a Scottish player in a Euros/World Cup qualifying campaign, along with Steven Fletcher (Euro 2016) and McGinn (Euro 2020). And what’s even more impressive is his goals came from just 1.77 xG, an overperformance of 5.23. Talk about clinical.
Germany and Scotland are facing each other for the third time at a major tournament. The Germans won the two previous encounters, in the group stages of the 1986 World Cup (2-1) and Euro 1992 (2-0).
Scotland had more shots (21 to 19) than Germany in that Euro 1992 fixture, mustering 2.39 xG to Germany’s 1.9. Still, the eventual runners-up got over the line thanks to goals from Karl-Heinz Riedle and Stefan Effenberg.
Scotland have won only one of their last 13 matches against Germany (D4 L8); it was in April 1999, with Don Hutchison scoring the only goal in a Bremen friendly (0-1).
It’s no surprise to see Germany are strong favourites to win this match, with bookies rating their chances of victory at 70.4%.
Scotland should have some confidence, but we're not fancying their chances. They are handed just a 12.2% win likelihood before kick-off, with the draw also played out across 17.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
PREDICTION: HOME TO WIN @1.30
*Hungary vs Switzerland: HOME WIN OR DRAW @1.60
*Spain vs Croatia: 1X + UNDER 4.5 @1.37
*Italy vs Albania: HOME WIN @1.41
*Poland vs Netherlands: AWAY WIN @1.57
*Slovenia vs Denmark: X2 + UNDER 4.5 @1.30
*Serbia vs England: UNDER 3.5 @1.34
