Premier League Matchday 21 Preview and Prediction

Premier League Predictions Matchweek 21: The Quick Hits

Burnley are given a slight edge over fellow relegation candidates Luton in a very even contest at Turf Moor.

Manchester City are expected to inflict more misery on Newcastle.

Despite ending 2023 with a bad defeat at Nottingham Forest, Manchester United are predicted to bounce back with a win over Tottenham.

Burnley vs Luton: Prediction and Preview:

With FA Cup third-round weekend done and dusted, the Premier League returns for a staggered Matchday 21 as half the competition’s teams take a winter break. There are still plenty of intriguing contests taking place, though, starting on Friday as Burnley face Luton Town at Turf Moor in a match which could have huge ramifications for both teams’ survival hopes.

Though Burnley were tipped by many to impress on their top-flight return in pre-season, Luton have been the most competitive of the promoted clubs thus far, and they know a victory at Turf Moor would lift them out of the bottom three as well as dragging Brentford, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace into the relegation conversation.

Rob Edwards’ Hatters enjoyed a broadly positive festive period, clinching back-to-back wins over Newcastle United (1-0) and Sheffield United (3-2) before just coming up short in a 3-2 defeat to Chelsea, almost fighting back from 3-0 down to earn a point at Kenilworth Road. They were then held to a goalless draw by third-tier Bolton Wanderers in the FA Cup, with a replay to be held next week.

This will be Burnley’s first home game against Luton in the top flight since January 1975, when a Billy Ingham goal handed them a 1-0 win.

The Clarets are unbeaten in their last seven league games against Luton overall, winning four and drawing three. After earning their first Premier League win of the season at Kenilworth Road in October, they could do the double over the Hatters for the first time since 1994-95 in the second tier.

Prediction: Burnley to win or draw @1.28

Chelsea vs Fulham: Prediction and Preview

Chelsea will put cup commitments to one side as Mauricio Pochettino’s team aim to make it three straight Premier League wins when they host fellow EFL Cup semi-finalists Fulham at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

The Blues swept aside Preston North End with a 4-0 demolition in their FA Cup third-round tie last weekend but suffered a disappointing 1-0 loss away at Championship side Middlesbrough in their EFL Cup semi-final first leg on Tuesday. Chelsea will look to bounce back in the Premier League, though, where they have recently recorded back-to-back victories over Crystal Palace and Luton Town.

Fulham have had similar commitments to Chelsea outside of league football in the last week, defeating Rotherham United 1-0 in their FA Cup third-round tie thanks to Bobby De Cordova-Reid’s goal, before losing 2-1 at Liverpool in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final clash on Wednesday. Marco Silva’s men claimed a 2-1 win over top-flight title contenders Arsenal in their last Premier League outing on New Year’s Eve as Raúl Jiménez and De Cordova-Reid powered the hosts to a comeback victory at Craven Cottage after Bukayo Saka’s early opener.

The 31 December triumph over Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal was a welcome return to form for Fulham, whose 13th-place league-table position before MD 21 owes to a run of three straight league defeats – against Bournemouth, Burnley and Newcastle United – prior to their win over the Gunners.

Chelsea will fancy their chances here considering they are unbeaten in their last 18 home league games against Fulham (W11 D7) since a 2-0 loss in the second tier in October 1979.

Continue to look away Fulham fans… the Cottagers have won just one of their last 23 Premier League games against Chelsea (D8 L14) overall, though that was a 2-1 success at home last January.

Indeed, Fulham’s 10% win rate against Chelsea (8 wins from 77 meetings) is the lowest of the 3,116 occasions of a side facing another at least 50 times in English league history. The Blues were also 2-0 victors in the reverse fixture this term as Mykhailo Mudryk and Armando Broja found the net.

Prediction: Chelsea to win @1.60

Newcastle vs Manchester City: Prediction and Preview

It’s fair to say 2023 was a good year for Manchester City, and as Pep Guardiola’s treble winners approach their first Premier League game of 2024, it’s starting to feel like more success is around the corner this year. With City starting to click into gear, boosted by the return of key players and the missteps of their rivals, are out-of-form Newcastle United set for a difficult outing on Saturday?

City have been immaculate since their successful trip to the FIFA Club World Cup in Saudi Arabia, reeling off Premier League wins over Everton (3-1) and Sheffield United (2-0) before routing Huddersfield Town 5-0 in the FA Cup last Sunday.

One huge positive from last week’s cup win was Kevin De Bruyne’s return from injury, as the Belgian laid on Doku’s goal on his first appearance in almost five months, recording his 30th assist across all competitions since the start of last season. Despite De Bruyne only playing three games this term, his 30 assists is the most of any player from Europe’s top five leagues since the start of 2022-23, with Mohamed Salah second on 24.

Guardiola will want City to make a better start than they managed in their last two away league games – comeback wins over Luton Town and Everton. Only three teams have previously won three straight Premier League away games when conceding first in each: Leeds United in 1999, Tottenham in 2013 and Manchester United in 2020 (a run of six).

Newcastle, meanwhile, endured a far less productive festive period and have lost six of their last nine Premier League matches (three wins), only one fewer defeat than they suffered in their previous 44 (24 wins, 13 draws, seven losses). After going down to Luton, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, they could lose four successive league games for the first time since January 2021 (a run of five).

The Magpies eased the pressure on boss Eddie Howe with a commanding 3-0 FA Cup victory over local rivals Sunderland last week, with Alexander Isak netting twice after Dan Ballard put through his own net for the Black Cats.

Isak has now scored in three straight games for the second time this campaign, while his total of 13 goals in 22 matches across all competitions this season is two more than he netted in 29 appearances throughout 2022-23 (for Real Sociedad and Newcastle combined).

While Newcastle should be in high spirits after their first Tyne-Wear derby win since August 2011, they suffered yet another injury blow at the Stadium of Light, with Joelinton sustaining a thigh issue. The Brazilian joins Jacob Murphy, Callum Wilson, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes, Elliot Anderson, Matt Targett and Nick Pope on a lengthy injury list.

Newcastle have a truly dismal record against City, who have won more games (30), scored more goals (98) and kept more clean sheets (22) against the Magpies than versus any other club in their Premier League history.

Indeed, Saturday’s hosts have only won one of their last 32 Premier League matches against City (five draws, 26 defeats), a 2-1 victory at St James’ in January 2019.

City have also scored in each of their last 30 Premier League games against Newcastle, the longest scoring streak one side has managed against another in the competition’s history.

In English top-flight history, the last team to score in more consecutive matches against a single opponent was Chelsea, who netted in 37 games straight against Newcastle between 1933 and 1969.

City were, however, shut out when the teams met on this ground in the third round of the EFL Cup in September, falling to a 1-0 defeat. Newcastle could now beat the Citizens twice in the same season for the first time since 1983-84.

Prediction: Man City to win @1.56

Man Utd vs Totthenham: Prediction and Preview

MD 21 ends with Manchester United hosting Tottenham. Flush a new January signings in Timo Werner and potentially another to follow in Radu Dragusin, Ange Postecoglou’s side are looking to complete their first league double over United since the 1989-90 campaign, having won 2-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in August.

If they do prevail here, Postecoglou could become the first ever Tottenham Hotspur manager to win his first two games against Manchester United in all competitions. They’ve won five of their last six on all fronts, and the bookies backs Spurs to pick up three points in 30% of its 10,000 simulations ahead of this game.

The Red Devils’ comeback win over Villa is their only victory in their last five Premier League fixtures, and Erik ten Hag will hope their 2-0 FA Cup success over Wigan Athletic is a sign of brighter things for 2024. After all, his side have lost nine of their 20 Premier League games this season, as many defeats as they suffered in the whole of 2022-23. The comfort of Old Trafford – no team has won more home games against an opponent in Premier League history than United’s 24 against Tottenham (level with Arsenal against Everton) – is driving their 40.3% chance of success.

None of the last 17 Premier League contests between these two sides at Old Trafford have finished level. Sensibly, the supercomputer has that as the least likely result

Prediction: Man Utd to win draw @1.37