Premier League Matchweek 27 Preview and Prediction
We enjoyed a strong round with the picks in the last matchweek, as favourites Arsenal, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Wolves all emerged triumphant. However, Manchester United’s surprise loss at home to Fulham ensured it was not a perfect slate of match predictions.
Matchday 27 will see seven fixtures take place on Saturday, with leaders Liverpool among the teams in action as they travel to play Nottingham Forest.
There is title race interest across all three days of action, as Man City host rivals Man Utd in a huge derby on Sunday, before in-form Arsenal travel to play struggling Sheffield United on Monday.
Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the possible outcomes from selected matches.
Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction and Preview
Having been labelled “blue million pound bottle jobs” by Gary Neville in the wake of their 1-0, extra-time defeat to Liverpool in the EFL Cup final, Chelsea might have wanted a convincing response when they faced Leeds United in the FA Cup on Wednesday.
Yet in the end, Mauricio Pochettino’s side had to rely on a last-gasp winner from Conor Gallagher to triumph 3-2 at Stamford Bridge and progress to the last eight.
In their previous Premier League outing, however, Chelsea did frustrate Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, drawing 1-1, with Rodri scoring late on for the champions. That followed on from a 3-1 win for Chelsea at Crystal Palace.
With Wolves and Newcastle United – the two teams immediately above them in the league table – facing each other on Saturday, Chelsea could move as high as ninth with a win, with European qualification reportedly vital if Pochettino is going to stand a chance of keeping his job beyond this season.
Brentford have won just one of their last six league matches, losing all of the other five, and after Everton had four points reinstated, the Bees find themselves in 16th place.
Ivan Toney’s return has boosted their chances of escaping the relegation battle, and Thomas Frank’s team beat Chelsea without their star striker earlier in the season.
Yet while Toney’s absence – and Bryan Mbeumo’s injury – has hurt them at the other end, it is in defence where Brentford have really struggled this season. They have conceded 48 goals in their 26 Premier League games so far this season, already two more than they shipped in the whole of 2022-23.
Brentford have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three Premier League games against Chelsea – only against Man City (2021-2023) and Man Utd (2019-2021) have the Blues failed to score in four consecutive meetings in the competition.
Indeed, Chelsea have won just one of their five Premier League meetings with Brentford, losing three of their last four against the Bees (D1). It is their lowest win rate against any opponent they have faced 5+ times in the competition (20%).
The Bees have outscored the Blues 8-1 since they last lost to them, with that defeat coming in October 2021. And, after a 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge in the reverse fixture, Brentford are looking to complete only their second ever league double over Chelsea, and first since 1938-39.
Brentford were unbeaten in their first four Premier League games this season (W1 D3) but have since lost 15 of their last 22. Since (and including) their first loss of the campaign, only bottom two sides Burnley and Sheffield United (16 each) have lost more.
That run has included five defeats in their last six top-flight matches, albeit four of those have come against Man City (twice), Tottenham and Liverpool. Brentford have conceded 15 goals in that run, scoring just six in return.
Chelsea have won each of their last four Premier League London derby matches, as many as they had in their previous 16 (D5 L7). They last won five in a row between January and May 2021.
For all their troubles, Chelsea have lost just two of their last seven league games. The last home game Brentford won was against Nottingham Forest in January.
PREDICTION: CHELSEA WIN OR DRAW @1.35
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Prediction and Preview
‘You can’t win anything with kids’, the old saying goes. It seems nobody told Jürgen Klopp.
The German’s bid to end his Liverpool reign with four major trophies has gathered pace over the last few days, with Virgil van Dijk leading a patched-up Reds side to EFL Cup final glory against Chelsea before the kids took centre-stage in Wednesday’s 3-0 FA Cup win over Southampton. With injuries continuing to bite, how many of Liverpool’s youngsters will get a chance to impress in the Premier League on Saturday when the leaders visit Nottingham Forest?
With title rivals Manchester City and Arsenal not in action until later on Matchday 27, Liverpool can go four points clear at the summit on Saturday, having won seven of their last eight Premier League games (one defeat).
Klopp’s side are the highest scorers in the league, hitting the net 63 times, and their average of 2.4 goals per game is their third-highest ratio in a single season in the competition, having managed 2.7 in 2013-14 and 2.5 in 2021-22.
Liverpool could again be without their top three Premier League scorers for Saturday’s game; Diogo Jota (nine goals) will definitely miss out, while it remains to be seen whether Darwin Núñez (nine) or Mohamed Salah (15) will make it after suffering muscle injuries.
Forest would have been Liverpool’s FA Cup quarter-final opponents had they managed to overcome United on Wednesday, but Casemiro’s last-gasp header dumped Nuno Espírito Santo’s men out of the competition. They can now focus on their fight for survival, entering MD 27 four points clear of the relegation zone.
Forest are, of course, waiting on the outcome of their charge over an alleged breach of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability rules. They were one of the losers as Everton’s 10-point deduction was reduced to six on appeal this week; the Opta supercomputer gave Forest a 16.7% chance of relegation prior to that announcement, and that has since risen to 18.5%.
Nuno’s men finished on the wrong side of a six-goal affair last time out in the Premier League, losing 4-2 to Champions League-chasing Aston Villa. Ollie Watkins’ tap-in and a Douglas Luiz brace put Villa 3-0 up before Moussa Niakhaté and Morgan Gibbs-White struck back for Forest, only for Leon Bailey to kill their fightback.
Forest have a remarkable record against Liverpool at the City Ground, going unbeaten through their last 13 home league games against the Reds (six wins, seven draws).
That run includes all six Premier League meetings between the teams at the ground (three wins, three draws). It’s the joint-most times Forest have faced a particular team at home in the competition without losing (also six vs Leeds United), and the most away Premier League games Liverpool have played against a team without winning.
Awoniyi was the hero in this exact fixture last campaign, netting the winner against his former club as Steve Cooper’s men clinched a 1-0 victory.
However, Liverpool won this season’s return fixture at Anfield 3-0. They could now complete their first league double over Forest since 1984-85, when they were managed by Joe Fagan.
Liverpool have won three straight Premier League games against Burnley (3-1), Brentford (4-1) and Luton Town (4-1) since going down 3-1 at Arsenal in early February.
They trailed the Hatters last time out before fighting back for victory, and they have now recovered 22 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season, already their joint-most in a single campaign (also 2008-09).
Forest, meanwhile, have scored in all nine of their league games under Nuno (17 goals in total), netting at least twice in seven of those matches. However, they have only managed one clean sheet under him, shipping a total of 18 goals.
PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL TO WIN @1.51
Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction and Preview
The first Manchester derby of the season provided one of the low points of Erik ten Hag’s second campaign with Manchester United, as the Red Devils were thrashed 3-0 by Manchester City at a disgruntled Old Trafford in October. Four months on, Ten Hag is still under pressure, and a trip to the Etihad Stadium looks like the last thing he needs. Is another tough outing on the horizon?
It looked like United may just have put their season back on track when they won four straight Premier League games, but they suffered a familiar sinking feeling last week as Alex Iwobi’s 97th-minute strike past André Onana fired Fulham to a 2-1 win at Old Trafford. United have now suffered 10 Premier League defeats this term, only recording more in a single season in 2013-14 and 2021-22 (both 12).
Man City have made a habit of tormenting their neighbours since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016, with the former Barcelona boss winning eight of his 15 Manchester derbies in the Premier League (two draws, five losses). Guardiola is the only manager to face United 10 or more times in the competition and win at least half of those games, while only Arsène Wenger (12) has beaten them more often.
Guardiola’s side were more convincing in their own FA Cup win, routing Luton 6-2 at Kenilworth Road as Erling Haaland scored five goals in a game for the second time, having previously done so against RB Leipzig in the Champions League last year.
Haaland has now scored 79 goals in 83 appearances for City in all competitions since his debut in July 2022, at least 30 more than any other Premier League player during that time, with Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah next with 49.
Man City have won four of their last five Premier League meetings with United (one defeat), as many victories as they managed in their previous 13 against them (three draws, six losses).
Haaland scored twice and Foden joined him on the scoresheet as City won the return fixture 3-0, with Haaland’s opener coming from a controversial penalty after Højlund was adjudged to have dragged Rodri down.
United have also lost their last two Premier League visits to the Etihad Stadium, going down 4-1 in 2021-22 and 6-3 in 2022-23.
The Red Devils last endured a longer run of successive away league defeats to City between August 1952 and September 1955, losing four in a row.
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 18 games across all competitions, winning 16 and playing out draws with Crystal Palace and Chelsea. Both of those stalemates did come at the Etihad Stadium, however.
Guardiola’s men do tend to put on a show at home, though, scoring in each of their last 54 home matches in all competitions. A goal on Sunday would see them equal their club-record streak of 55 successive home games with a goal, set between January 2012 and January 2014.
They have won their last two Premier League matches 1-0 – against Bournemouth away and Brentford at home – following a 1-1 draw against Chelsea at the Etihad. They have never won three consecutive Premier League games under Guardiola by a 1-0 scoreline.
The hosts could also keep three successive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since December 2021, but they haven’t shut out United twice in the same league campaign since 1973-74.
Perhaps playing away from Old Trafford might ease some of the pressure on United, who have won their last six on the road in all competitions, having failed to win any of their last five to end 2023 (two draws, three losses).
PREDICTION: MAN CITY TO WIN @1.25
* Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace: Tottenham Hotspur to win @1.44
* Luton Town vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa to win @1.71
* Newcastle United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: Newcastle United to win or draw @1.25
