Premier League Matchweek 32 Preview and Prediction

Our expert has made his picks for the latest round of matches in what remains a crucial period of the season at both ends of the league table, with just three points still separating the top three teams in the standings.

We enjoyed an extremely strong midweek round with some excellent picks, as favorites Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City all emerged triumphant, while draws were correctly telegraphed in the Burnley vs Wolves and Brentford vs Brighton clashes. However, dropped points for Newcastle United against Everton ensured it was not a perfect slate of match predictions.

Matchday 32 will see seven fixtures take place on a packed Saturday card, with title contenders Man City and Arsenal among the teams in action as they travel to play Crystal Palace and Brighton respectively.

The game of the week comes on Sunday as under-pressure Man Utd host leaders Liverpool at Old Trafford in a rematch of their classic FA Cup tie, just three days after United’s dreadful late collapse at Chelsea.

Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out our expert match prediction.

Manchester City are strong favourites to defeat Crystal Palace in the first match of the weekend, which would pile pressure on their title rivals.
The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal and Liverpool a slight edge in their respective matches, but they are seen as having a much tougher path to victory than Man City in Matchday 32.

Tottenham are more likely match winners than Aston Villa this weekend as a thrilling back-and-forth battle for a top-four finish continues.
Manchester City have the chance to strike first in the title race this weekend as they travel to play Crystal Palace, who have gone four matches without a win and still cannot be sure of Premier League survival.

Man City enjoy playing at Selhurst Park – they are unbeaten in their last eight top-flight games there, winning six and drawing two, with six clean sheets and just two goals conceded in that span.

Pep Guardiola’s men are backed to extend that run with a 1.32 odds of winning the Saturday early fixture, which is the highest win probability given to any of the 20 teams in Matchday 32. Palace’s chances are way down even though they battled back to secure an impressive 2-2 draw at the Etihad Stadium earlier this season.

Erling Haaland was granted a rest in the thumping 4-1 win against Aston Villa on Wednesday, so he will hope to be fit and firing against Palace. The Premier League top scorer will be motivated to strike as he has not found the net in any of his last four Premier League away games, his longest run without a goal on the road in the competition.

But Phil Foden – on a high after his hat-trick at the Etihad – has helped to carry the load of late. He has scored five goals in his last five top-flight away games, and one more would see him hit seven road goals for the season, tying his best tally in a single campaign (seven in 2020-21).

After that humbling defeat to Man City in midweek, Aston Villa will look to get back on the horse by beating Brentford at home – the Opta prediction model gives them a 45.6% chance of doing just that, though Unai Emery’s team are not the home banker that they were earlier in the campaign, that’s for sure. Since their 15-game home-winning run in the Premier League between March and December 2023, Villa have won three of their seven league games at Villa Park (D1 L3).

Brentford are still hovering close to the relegation zone, and the Bees are handed a 26.3% likelihood of taking the three points. Villa have won two of their last three league games against Brentford (D1), having been winless in eight against them before this. Thomas Frank’s side are winless in eight league matches and the Bees have a difficult if not impossible task as they look for their first league win at Villa Park.

Everton might have snatched a 1-1 draw with Newcastle last time out thanks to Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s last-gasp penalty, but the Toffees are now on a 13-game winless streak in the league – their longest such run since the 1950s – so it is fair to say, Sean Dyche needs a victory against his old side Burnley.

But Burnley have turned a corner in recent weeks and go into Saturday’s clash unbeaten in four games. The draw threat, meanwhile, is significant, meaning this fixture is the most likely to finish all square out of all the games in this matchweek. Everton have lost nine of their last 14 home matches against promoted sides (W3 D2), but Dyche has beaten his former team twice already this term, while Calvert-Lewin’s return to scoring form has been a huge boost. He has netted three times in his last five appearances against Burnley.

Expect a tight encounter between Fulham and Newcastle at Craven Cottage, with our expert suggesting the Magpies are the very slight favorites, with a rather high percentage win probability to Fulham’s not so far away, with the chance of a draw a high possibility. Fulham have won nine of their 15 Premier League home games so far this season (D1 L5), their most in a single top-flight campaign since 2011-12 (10).

That being said, Newcastle have a strong record in this fixture. They have won their last four Premier League games against Fulham – only against Tottenham (six), Burnley, Nottingham Forest and Sunderland (five each) have they won more consecutively in the competition. The Cottagers have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Newcastle (D2 L7), a 1-0 home win in 2014. They have failed to score on seven occasions in this run, netting just three goals overall, while the Magpies won the reverse fixture 3-0 at St James’ Park.

Luton Town are given a decent chance of earning a vital win in their bid to avoid relegation to the Championship as they take on Bournemouth. A close contest is in store, but we give the edge to Luton, with Bournemouth not too far behind and the draw worth looking out for.

Hosts Luton are looking to avenge the stunning comeback produced by Bournemouth in their 4-3 win last month, having been three goals down. More entertainment could be on the menu, as there have been 48 goals scored in 15 Premier League matches played at Kenilworth Road this season (22 for Luton and 26 for their opponents). Only five stadiums have seen 50 or more goals scored in 16 or fewer games, with the most recent example being Blackpool’s Bloomfield Road in the 2010-11 season (14 matches).

Wolves will welcome West Ham to Molineux hoping to extend their fine recent record at home. Gary O’Neil’s team have won six of their last nine home Premier League matches (D1 L2), including their last two. However, West Ham sit four places above them in the table our expert suggests it will be an evenly matched contest, with the Hammers just the slightest favorites to win.

Arsenal will travel to the Amex to face Brighton for the late kick-off on Saturday, a match in which the bookies gave Arsenal a 1.61 odds chance of victory. The Seagulls, who are given a 5.10 odds chance of emerging triumphant, will have to pull out all the stops to beat the in-form Gunners, but their recent home form suggests this may be more of a test for Arsenal than many expect. Brighton are unbeaten in their last 12 home matches in the competition (W6 D6), their longest unbeaten run at the Amex.

However, Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four away Premier League matches – only once in their league history have they kept five in a row, doing so between February and April 1997. Since the turn of the year, Arsenal hasn’t trailed for a single minute in any of their five away Premier League games, conceding the fewest goals (1), allowing the lowest xG against (2.26), and facing the fewest shots on target (5) on the road of any side in 2024. Mikel Arteta will want to make sure his side can go top of the standings, setting a marker for Liverpool the following day.

Into Sunday’s games now and the first match is the big one, as Manchester United take on Liverpool at Old Trafford. There was late drama in both teams’ matches on Thursday, but while Liverpool moved top after their battling win over Sheffield United at Anfield, Man Utd suffered a calamitous late collapse against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

United will hope the stirring recent FA Cup quarter-final win, and last season’s Premier League triumph at home against their rivals can help to lift them for another big performance as the pressure grows on Erik ten Hag. Liverpool have made a marked improvement away from home, winning six of their last seven road matches after taking 19 matches to earn their six away wins before this sequence.

Chelsea will be riding high coming off what can only be described as one of the most dramatic Premier League matches, beating Man Utd 4-3 in the last moments of the game. Chelsea travel to Bramall Lane to play Sheffield United with a 1.40 odds win probability. The Blues are unbeaten in their last four away matches in all competitions (W2 D2), last enjoying a longer unbeaten run on their travels in Graham Potter’s first five away games in October 2022 (W4 D1).

According to the bookies, Sheff Utd only have their odds at 6.70 odds chance of winning and their home form has been miserable this season. They have already conceded 45 goals in 15 matches this term and, in Premier League history, only Watford in 2021-22 have conceded more home goals in a season (46).

Chelsea will like their chances of finishing the week with six points, as they fast gain ground on the top six.

Rounding out Matchday 32, Tottenham will host Nottingham Forest, who have lost their last two away league games against Spurs, ending what had been a positive run of losing on just one of their previous 11 visits (W8 D2).

Forest are in danger of suffering a third straight loss, with the visitors having a rather low percentage chance of victory.

Forest will at least come into the game with confidence coming off a 3-1 win over Fulham in midweek. They have now scored three or more goals in two of their 14 Premier League games under Nuno Espírito Santo, as many times as they achieved the feat in 55 games under Steve Cooper. They now have the chance to net three or more goals in consecutive top-flight games in the same season for the first time since March/April 1995. 

But Tottenham have won 11 of their 15 home Premier League matches this season (L4) and are the only side yet to draw a match on home soil in 2023-24. Since losing three in a row in November and December, Spurs have won seven of their last eight at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (L1) and, at 61.0%, Ange Postecoglou’s side are the most confident prediction among all 10 home teams in a weekend that could prove crucial from top to bottom in the Premier League table.

MATCHDAY 32 PREMIER LEAGUE PREDICTION

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City: Manchester City to win @1.32

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal FC: Arsenal to win @1.61

Manchester United vs Liverpool FC: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @1.37

Sheffield United vs Chelsea FC: Chelsea to win @1.40

Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest: Tottenham Hotspur to win @1.40